Playoff Series Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are nearly upon us, and barring a miracle, the Colorado Avalanche‘s first-round opponent is set. The Winnipeg Jets spent much of the year looking destined for a Central Division title. However, since the calendar turned to 2024, The Jets have faded. With the Dallas Stars secure as the top seed in the Central, that leaves the second and third seeds in the hands of the Jets and the Avalanche.

To prepare you for what looks on paper a memorable first-round series, The Avs Report has broken down the two foes for comparison. Without further ado, let’s break down these two titans by position group: forwards, defenseman, and goaltending.

Forwards

Nathan MacKinnon versus Mark Scheifele and company is a matchup that looks lopsided on paper. Colorado is known for having two of the most elite forwards in the NHL in the form of Mikko Rantanen and Hart-favorite MacKinnon. Supporting cast Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Casey Mittelstadt, Jonathan Drouin and company should provide the depth Colorado lacked in last years matchup with the Seattle Kraken. Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets rely on scoring in depth, with only two forwards eclipsing 60 points on the season.

The Avalanche have a clear advantage here and should be seen as a heavy favorite when specifically weighing forward performance. Add Colorado having five forwards on the ice for Game 1 who lifted the Cup with the Avalanche in 2022 with the potential looming of captain Gabriel Landeskog returning to play at some point (although we have no indication he will be available this series.) The Winnipeg Jets roster does not feature a single forward who has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals, let alone won the greatest trophy in all of sport.

Advantage: The Colorado Avalanche

Defense

The defensive matchup in this series shows stark contrast between star defenders and team defense. The Avalanche have the greatest defenseman in the world in Cale Makar. Devon Toews, Sam Girard, and Josh Manson all boast both Stanley Cup experience and impressive numbers individually in both the offensive and defensive zones throughout this season. However, when looking at the whole for the Avalanche, it is somewhat less than the sum of its parts. The Avalanche have allowed an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 155.73 (xGA is the definitive team metric for the amount of dangerous chances you allow). Colorado’s 155.73 xGA is 10th best in the NHL through 79 games.

The narrative entering the series will be that the Jets are a much more sound defensive unit, but is that true? From a vague star power perspective, it’s fair to say the Jets are underrated. Josh Morrissey is the classic example of a superstar defender who doesn’t get put in conversations with the likes of Makar or Quinn Hughes, mainly due to Winnipeg being a small media market.

Morrissey has had an impressive 64 point season — second among all Winnipeg Jets this year — and is plus-30 on the year. Morrissey plays in all situations on both ends of the ice, and pairs with fellow point producer Neal Pionk (30 points) for offense and shutdown D-man Dylan DeMelo (plus-42 in 2,135 shifts and also 30 points) for a more stout defensive look. Digging deeper, however, we see that the Jets boast a teamwide xGA of 158.75, good for 12th in The NHL. So, are they truly the better defensive team?

The bottom line is that both of these teams have fantastic defenders who produce at an elite level. Who is more elite? Well, as we see above, both allow a similar amount of expected goals to face their goalies. Morrissey’s 64 points is impressive, and two other defenders (Pionk and DeMelo) reaching 30 points shows there’s no shortage of depth. Here’s the rug pulled out from this narrative: Makar’s Norris-caliber 87 points dwarfs Morrissey, and his D-partner Toews has posted 49 points through 29 games. Together, Colorado’s top-pair outperforms the Big 3 defenders of Winnipeg without even factoring in Avalanche defenders like Manson (23 points), Girard (18 points), and even 36-year-old bottom-pairing defender Jack Johnson (16 points). By contrast, the bottom-pairing defender for Winnipeg’s Logan Stanley has…two points.

Advantage: The Colorado Avalanche

Goaltending

How do we enter a series with the Winnipeg Jets seen as a defensively-inclined shutdown machine to the Avalanche’s all offense and no defense reputation? As legendary hockey coach and broadcaster Harry Neale is credited with saying, “Goaltending is 75% of your hockey team, unless you don’t have it. Then it’s 100%.”

Put simply, the greatest mismatch in this entire series is how much absurdly better Winnipeg Jets Vezina frontrunner Connor Hellebuyck has been than any netminder for the Avalanche. Hellebuyck sports a .920% save percentage in 58 games, and his tandem partner Laurent Brossoit has posted a .928 SV% in 22 appearances.

By contrast, Avalanche starter Alexander Georgiev has posted a .899% save percentage (the league average is .904%) through 61 starts, second in the league only to Nashville’s Juuse Saros. Avalanche rookie backup Justus Annunen has been impressive, posting a .931% save percentage but only starting in 11 games. Avalanche Coach Jared Bednar is on the record saying that there is no goalie controversy in Colorado, but bluntly put, there should be.

Save percentage isn’t foolproof. In hockey analytics, the gold standard is GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average). GSAA measures how well goalies perform versus what the average goalie can be expected to save. This cuts through the lucky bounces or influence of defenders, leaving a goaltender in a desperate position they can’t reasonably be expected to save (2-on-1 breakaways, deflections, power play chances from the slot, etc.). Hellebuyck leads the NHL with a GSAA of 29.4, which is 10 points clear of second place, Boston’s Linus Ullmark, who has a GSAA of 16.12. By itself, Hellebuyck’s GSAA shows just how much better he is than any other NHL goalie this year.

Georgiev stands at 76th out of 97 NHL goalies who have played the minimum 5 games to have a GSAA recorded. He has a GSAA of -5.86, meaning he lets in almost 6 more goals on average than any given starter in the NHL. Having a GSAA below 0 for a playoff starter is already rare (even if you wouldn’t think it looking at the Dallas Stars and Jake Oettinger‘s -8.94 nightmare season), but it is actually worse than that.

Last year, Georgiev had a much better regular season, placing sixth in the league with a 26.44 GSAA. The regression is one thing, but what Avalanche fans are clinging to is that Georgiev can find his form for the playoffs. So how does Georgiev’s playoff footprint compare? Well, after posting a season 26.44 GSAA, his playoff GSAA was 0.32. It’s true that GSAA is much more difficult to maintain in the playoffs. However, where Georgiev regressed badly in playoff performances, goalies with deep playoff runs like Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky (Regular Season: -4.60 GSAA, Playoffs: 6.41 GSAA) or Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights’ Adin Hill (Regular Season: 7.15 GSAA Playoffs: 9.11 GSAA) showed how goaltenders that make deep runs elevate their play.

For Avalanche fans, they know what it means to have subpar goaltending behind a Cup-caliber team. Darcy Kuemper lifted the Stanley Cup for the Avalanche in 2022 with a playoff GSAA of -6.34, the worst GSAA of any goaltender in those playoffs. There’s a dirty secret hiding in those numbers, however. Backup Pavel Francouz played seven playoff games, including starting all four games of the Western Conference Finals sweep of Connor McDavid‘s Edmonton Oilers. Francouz posted a playoff GSAA of -0.22, which was middle of the pack, but on paper an upgrade.

We say on paper because remember from above, playoff GSAAs generally are a regression from regular season GSAAs. Kuemper’s regular season GSAA in the Cup year for Colorado was 25.19. Georgiev’s GSAA in the Regular Season last year was 26.44 and regressed to .32, but that isn’t why the Seattle Kraken beat the Colorado Avalanche in seven games. Georgiev’s performance this year — assuming a similar pattern to himself the year before and Kuemper in 2022 in terms of playoff regression — very much will be a reason the Avalanche go home.

One final thought on goaltending. We mentioned above that Francouz showed up in the 2022 playoffs when the Avalanche needed him most, posting a significantly better performance than Kuemper. Current Avalanche backup Justus Annunen has never started a playoff game. Indeed, he only has 11 starts this entire season after beginning the year in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles. In 12 games this year (he also relieved Georgiev on March 20 against Nashville, saving 22 of 22 to slam the door), Annunen has a GSAA of 10.36, 12th best in the NHL.

The small sample size is obviously inflating Annunen’s numbers, and he recorded a shutout against the Chicago Blackhawks, which are the furthest thing from a playoff team the NHL offers. One just cannot help but wonder that if the struggles for Georgiev continue, could Annunen be this Avalanche team’s 2022 Pavel Francouz? Coach Bednar has made it abundantly clear that, despite the numbers, Alexander Georgiev is his man in net.

Advantage: The Winnipeg Jets

Conclusion

There are many other factors to consider when weighing this matchup. We do not know yet who will have home-ice advantage. The Colorado Avalanche are 30-8-1 this year at home, but somehow only 19-16-5 on the road. Home ice matters quite a lot for Colorado. Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets are 25-11-3 at home and 24-13-3 on the road, barely any difference at all.

Special teams matter more in the playoffs. Colorado has the fifth best power play (24.6%) in the league and the ninth best penalty kill (81.3%). Winnipeg features the 22nd-ranked power play (18.3%) and 21st-ranked penalty kill (77.1%). The Avalanche have a clear advantage here.

The playoffs almost always come down to some unknown X-factor, or a star performer stepping up at the perfect moment. Here is what we do know.

The Avalanche are the better team on both offense and defense, accounting for both forwards and defenders. They should be considered the favorites, but not the clear favorites, as the Jets have a goalie who is so much better that it tilts the scale. If this series is defined by MacKinnon and Scheifele facing off as the star forwards of their team, the Avalanche will win. If this series is defined by Makar and Toews paired against Morrissey and DeMelo for defensive dominance, the Avalanche will win. However, if this series (as so many Stanley Cup Playoffs before it) comes down to a battle of goaltending, defined by Hellebuyck and Georgiev willing their teams to the second round, Winnipeg will win…and it might not be particularly close. Time will tell.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin on April 20 with a specific game schedule yet to be announced. As of today, The Avs Report predicts the Colorado Avalanche advancing to the second round 4-3 in a full seven-game series.

Featured Image Credit: Isaiah J. Downing / USA TODAY Sports