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NFC & AFC Championship preview: We love scoring
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a touchdown during the NFC Divisional Playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 15, 2017. This week's Packers-Falcons game is expected to be just as high-scoring. Joe Robbins/Getty Images

NFC & AFC Championship preview: We love scoring

Last weekend, aside from the game that Brock Osweiler kept from being truly compelling, the NFL had a thoroughly solid slate. On paper, we can reasonably expect more of the same on championship weekend.

NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET/12:05 p.m. PT, FOX

It’s rare to have an NFL game that the public raves about that isn’t a shootout. The best recent exception I can think of is Super Bowl XLII, which ended with a 17-14 score and was just 7-3 entering the fourth quarter. Hardly a bonanza of points. Of course, that game had the incredibly high stakes of not only a championship being on the line but the Patriots perfect season.

People be lovin’ some offense. The league knows this, of course, which is why most rule changes benefit the side of the ball most responsible with piling up the points. The biggest postseason shootout in recent memory is the 2009 season Wild Card game between Arizona and Green Bay that ended 51-45 in overtime. Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews should know it well. Rodgers threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns, while Matthews had the only sack for the Pack.

That kind of score needs a special mix of flawless execution on offense and befuddlement on defense. It’s not unreasonable to expect something in the neighborhood of that between the Falcons and the Packers. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are capable of putting on a show, and each defense is just fair to middling enough to let them do it.

It’s interesting that championship weekend features two championship-winning coaches who were the subject of speculation about their jobs at midseason. Back in mid November, when the Steelers and Packers were 4-5, the NFL content churn was rife with posts wondering whether Tomlin and McCarthy were on the hot seat. It’s doubtful they were even had their teams gone on to miss the playoffs, but now that stuff looks even more ridiculous given that the Steelers have won nine straight since and the Packers have won eight in a row after falling to 4-6.

McCarthy is generally not a well-regarded coach and most fans attribute his success to Aaron Rodgers. There’s probably some truth to that, though it’s also unfair to write off all of McCarthy’s positives as mere coattail-riding. Getting to the Super Bowl is tough even with a likely Hall of Famer leading the way. For all his greatness, Dan Marino could only drag his team to one. Maybe that’s different in an era when quarterbacks couldn’t exert quite as much control, but it’s worth examining.

This is also a moment of career definition of Matt Ryan. There’s a good chance he’s the league’s MVP this year, though few things confer respect among quarterbacks like Super Bowl wins, or even appearances. Breaking through in his second conference title game at home would do a world of good for his rep, while failing again likely gets him resigned to the playoff failure label until proven otherwise. It’s a cruel football world out there.

AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET/3:40 p.m. PT, CBS

You don’t have to manufacture drama with a recorded locker room comment. These are two of the standard-bearers of the conference renewing tension that the principles have held for years. Mike Tomlin has some choice words for the Patriots and Tom Brady hasn’t been shy about rubbing it in when he’s gotten the better of Pittsburgh. Both teams had their offensive struggles advancing through the divisional round, though still persevered. Ben Roethlisberger had a good season, but has yet to put a really good performance together yet in two playoff wins. Tom Brady is an MVP contender and had to be bailed out on several deep throws in what was mostly a poor performance against the Texans. 

The Patriots defense doesn’t quite get the credit it deserves for being among the best in the league. The Steelers have always been synonymous with great defense, though it’s unit was anything but that to start the year. Like the Falcons, Pittsburgh’s defense has been written off as being bad halfway through the year but has steadily improved without people noticing until the past week or two.

Each team is capable of winning in a number of ways. Le’Veon Bell has been electric as Tom Brady has since coming off suspension. On the other side is LeGarrette Blount, a back who left the Patriots, went to Pittsburgh only to walk off the field for the Steelers then moseyed on back to Foxborough. He bullied his way for 127 yards in the regular season meeting. Gronk also lit up the Steelers but Gronk is done for this season due to a back injury.

New England is undefeated since Gronk’s season ended following a win over the Jets in Week 12. Only one of those games were they held under 30 points, and that was a 16-3 victory on the road against Denver’s punishing defense. They’re also 15-0 in games that Dion Lewis has been in the lineup since 2015. Gronk is certainly missed, but this is a Patriots team that always finds some contributor capable of putting them over the top.

It seems as though the Antonio Brown Facebook Live video story is petering out as the week goes on, so here’s hoping that storyline isn’t belabored too much during the game, though if Pittsburgh loses, the likelihood that blame gets put on that incident is incredibly high.

The Patriots haven’t trailed in a game since late November, so it’s imperative for Pittsburgh to get a lead early, similar to how they did with two quick scores against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. The Steelers had trouble getting into the end zone in Kansas City. That doesn’t necessarily mean the same will apply the following week, but the result will have to be manifest early.

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