Here's how much it will cost the Denver Broncos to extend cornerback Pat Surtain Jr.

Quickly glancing over Surtain II’s stats, it’s easy to quickly jump to a conclusion that he’s allowed considerably more yards than Alexander or Ward, the last two cornerbacks to break the $20 million/APY threshold. However, Alexander’s platform season was mostly spent on the IR after he hurt his shoulder on his fourth and final game of the year. With consideration taken into the extra volume of Surtain II’s coverage snaps, his Yards Allowed/Coverage Reps rank him amongst the best. This is despite having the highest Catch Rate Allowed, suggesting he’s softer on underneath routes but really limiting explosive plays.

The biggest differentiating point that Surtain II’s representation will highlight is he was the only member of this group to have an All-Pro nod and two Pro Bowl appearances in the three year lead-up.

Where contract negotiations may get tricky is the two-year gap in time between elite first round talent cornerbacks signing extensions. The Broncos would be fortunate to just give Surtain II a slight pay bump above Alexander to make him the highest paid corner in the league, but a $21.5 million APY deal would only account for 8.42% of the current salary cap. In 2022’s dollars, that would equate to just over $17.5 million per year.

Surtain II’s representation will push for the 10% of cap valuation that all three of his comparables hovered around. Thanks to an unexpected bump in the salary cap, that would give Surtain II a $25.5 million APY. This bracket of $21.5 million-$25.5 million is where negotiations will take place, and Surtain II has plenty of leverage to push for the higher end of that range.

A final sneaky piece to this puzzle is how reliable Surtain II has been as a tackler. He made an impressive 73 total tackles last year, while maintaining a low 3.9% miss tackle rate. In their platform years, Lattimore made 64 tackles with a 7.2% miss rate, Ward made 44 tackles with a 6.4% miss rate (though this was an outlier, in all other years he exceeded a 11% miss rate), and Alexander made 49 tackles with a 7.5% miss rate in his last full season before his extension. Surtain II is the most complete player out of this bunch.

Surtain II should seek a four year deal, as it would expire in time for him to negotiate another strong deal starting in his age-29 season. In the end, he will substantially surpass the current cornerback ceiling and reset it at a $24,500,000 APY, the sticker shock of which will be alleviated by the fact it represents a lower percentage of cap than any of the three comparables used for this valuation.

Final Contract Projection: 4 four years, $98,000,000 million - $52 million fully guaranteed